Armabloggin

Recently released data show that real GDP in the United Kingdom grew 0.3 percent (1.2 percent at an annualized rate) in Q1-2013 relative to the previous quarter, which was not as weak as some analysts had expected. The positive outturn means that the British economy has avoided a "tripledip" recession, […]

This report focuses on Japan and considers the domestic implications of the bold fiscal and monetary policy initiatives and economic incentives that swept the newly installed Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe into office in December as well as the unprecedented monetary policy easing program being implemented by his hand-picked leader […]

The global economy grew by an estimated 2.9% in 2012. The euro zone double dip recession, a softer Chinese showing, and sub-par numbers in North America weighed on overall growth prospects. Improved performances across most emerging economies should lead to a better showing: 3.1% in 2013 and 3.7% in 2014. The […]

For the fourth time, we present our year-end FX Top Trades for the coming year. In the years 2010-2012, our FX top trades delivered an average return of 3.1%, with a hit ratio of 80% each year. As in previous years, this year's trade ideas are based on a number of […]

Chancellor Osborne announced today that Mark Carney, currently the Governor of the Bank of Canada, would become the next Governor of the Bank of England on July 1, 2013. While Carney was rumoured to be a candidate, the announcement was nevertheless a surprise to the market, as Carney had previously […]

Fiscal policy became topic number one post-election. The impending fiscal cliff has started a firestorm of speculation about the future path of federal spending and tax policy. This report sheds light on how our economic forecasts would be impacted under various scenarios of tax and spending policies. We begin with […]

Financial markets are navigating their way through a myriad of political risks. The U.S. election produced a status quo result, President Obama was returned to office and Congress remains divided. The knee-jerk market reaction was a rally in fixed-income markets and a sell-off in equities. Although an Obama victory had […]

This month we have made very few changes. We have decided to keep our EUR/USD forecast profile unchanged at 1.35 (3M), 1.35 (6M) and 1.30 (12M). We continue to expect the Fed to be successful in changing market expectations and expect investors to continue to add USD-funded carry positions on […]

There is a big divergence between hard and soft data in the euro area at the moment. Although not clear cut, it does suggest that soft data such as euro PMI may be too downbeat and could surprise on the upside in coming months. Euro industrial production was released […]

Whoever is in the White House after November 6th, putting the U.S. budget on a sustainable footing will still require some degree of bi-partisan support. Even if Republicans take the Presidency and both Houses of Congress, Democrats have leverage over taxes and the ability to filibuster indefinitely proposals they do […]