Armabloggin

Flipping through media headlines, it's hard to miss the fact that market skepticism has deepened in recent weeks over the sustainability of the US recovery. More and more, the notions of a "double-dip recession" and even "depression" are being tossed about by bearish market pundits. So it seems that now […]

The USD sell-off initiated in June kicked into overdrive shortly after our July report as the market quickly sold the greenback off to its lowest level since January. The main driver behind the weak USD argument was the strong and steady fall in US interest rates relative to the rest […]

We look for EUR/USD to adjust lower in the short term as the dollar is too negatively priced. Europe is not such a rosy story as implied by current pricing. On the longer horizon, we see more dollar-negative factors and forecast EUR/USD to trade higher than the current spot on […]

The global economy grew at a rapid rate in early 2010 with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) calculating that GDP output increased at a faster than 5% annualized pace in the first quarter of the year. Trade volumes and global industrial production surged, and the global purchasing managers' and OECD […]

Our outlook has no double-dip, no V-shaped recovery, no hyper-inflation in response to the Fed's enlarged balance sheet, and no deflation in response to the Fed's failure to increase the balance sheet even more. Instead, our outlook is for moderate, subpar growth during the second half of this year, low […]

Signs of weaker economic growth in the US has led to a fall in the dollar and a rise in its counterparts. Notable amongst the latter has been the seeming turnaround in the fortunes of the euro. It has moved from being under 1.20 versus the US in the […]

The global economy is at a sensitive point in the cycle as it transitions from policy driven expansion to sustained private demand. Global purchasing manager's surveys peaked in May, and the growth tailwind from the inventory rebuild is blowing with less force. We are at that point in the recovery […]

Overarching themes driving global financial markets have not changed significantly in the last month but some of the intensity has faded. Renewed euro buying relative to the dollar does not mean that concerns about the risk of sovereign debt default in Europe has gone away or that worries about the […]

In the past month, financial markets have been hit with a bad case of the jitters on worries that the global economy will not be able to withstand the implementation of fiscal austerity measures in Europe and slowing growth in some emerging economies. Central bankers too have assumed a more […]

The wave of disappointing economic reports this past month combined with the inability of the Administration to push additional stimulus through an election-wary Congress has reawakened fears about a double-dip. We continue to believe such fears are overblown. We remain concerned that so much stimulus is ending in such a […]